We’re hitting the halfway mark of AI Agents previewing the upcoming NFL season. Only time will tell who is correct. Check out the NFC West Preview, AFC West Preview, and the NFC North Preview to follow along.
I have tasked Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude to put on their thinking hats and give me a preview of the upcoming NFL season, division by division. Let’s see what we’re in for.
Tomlin quit after winning the AFC North. He said it was “a good time for the organization, to be quite honest for you,” pointed at seven straight playoff losses, and said Heyward and Watt “were worthy of the excitement and the optimism associated with new leadership.” Then went into broadcasting.
Baltimore fired a Harbaugh and hired a guy who worked for both Harbaughs. Jesse Minter was a Ravens defensive assistant under John from 2017-2020, then Jim Harbaugh’s DC at Michigan and with the Chargers. Meanwhile John Harbaugh got hired by the Giants and a chunk of Baltimore’s offensive line followed him there. That’s the Jerry Maguire callout.
Aaron Rodgers is playing his 22nd and final season for Mike McCarthy. In Pittsburgh. McCarthy is only the fourth Steelers head coach since 1969.
We could talk about the Browns, but why?
GOOGLE Gemini
Forget finesse or sunshine. The AFC North is an orthopedic surgeon’s retirement fund. Dive into our complete team-by-team season forecast and projected divisional finish.
AFC North 2026 Preview: Scurvy, Spite, and The Meat-Grinder of Despair
Welcome to the AFC North, the only division in sports where orthopedic surgeons are considered primary offensive weapons and the team doctors hold press conferences under dim, flickering interrogation bulbs.
If other divisions are sleek summer blockbusters, the AFC North is The Road directed by Werner Herzog. The sun does not shine here. The turf tastes like rusted iron and broken promises, and every November 1:00 PM game looks like four hours of trench foot set to a muted industrial soundtrack.
Grab your anti-depressants and a spare knee brace. Here is the 2026 preview.
1. Baltimore Ravens: The Joyless Juggernaut
The Ravens have built an absolute monster of an offensive machine, which they will inevitably drive straight into a concrete wall come mid-January.
Lamar Jackson remains a walking video game cheat code, running option plays with Derrick Henry like they’re reenacting the invasion of Normandy. They added Trey Hendrickson on the edge just to ensure opposing quarterbacks sleep with the lights on. On paper, Baltimore is a certified Super Bowl favorite.
- The Reality: The existential dread is undefeated. Ravens fans don’t celebrate 14-win seasons; they wait for the inevitable, stomach-churning divisional round game where John Harbaugh calls six straight running plays into eight-man boxes, someone commits an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty near the sideline, and the season ends with Lamar staring bleakly into a freezing drizzle.
- The Outlook: Dominant from September to December. Pure, agonizing heartbreak in January. It’s not just a trend; it’s an ancient Mesopotamian curse.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow’s St. Jude Benefit Tour
Every Cincinnati Bengals game should legally be required to feature Sarah McLachlan singing “In the Arms of an Angel” over slow-motion replays of Joe Burrow getting folded like cheap patio furniture.
Burrow is an artist, a philosopher of the pocket, and an elite quarterback who plays behind an offensive line assembled like an IKEA desk with three missing bolts. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are out wide, running routes like gods, while Burrow has roughly 1.4 seconds before an interior defensive tackle drives his sternum into the turf. They even brought in Joe Flacco to backup the room, because nothing screams “we are prepared for the worst” quite like keeping an ancient statue on call.
- The Reality: Every third-and-long is a live-action stress test for Cincinnati’s entire cardiac wing. When Burrow is upright, they can hang 40 on anyone. When he takes a hit, 60,000 people in Paycor Stadium hold their breath to see if a cart is coming out.
- The Outlook: An electric, Super Bowl-caliber offense tethered entirely to the structural integrity of Burrow’s ligaments. May the MRI machines stay cold.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: The 9–8 Zombie Apocalypse
Civilization could collapse, currency could become bottle caps, and radioactive dust could blanket North America, but Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers would still finish 9–8.
The offense has entered full absurdist theater. Aaron Rodgers is in town, looking like a wilderness survivalist while attempting to run an offense that looks like it was drawn up in 1974. T.J. Watt will inevitably record 18 sacks, play four games with torn chest cartilage, and scream into the autumn wind as the defense holds opponents to 13 points a game.
- The Reality: Pittsburgh does not win football games; they drag opponents down into an open sewer and drown them in the muck. It is ugly, it is painful, and it causes neutral fans to turn off their televisions in existential despair.
- The Outlook: They will start 3–5, national pundits will write Tomlin’s obituary, and then they will win four straight games 16–13 on bizarre deflected interceptions. They will squeak into the 7-seed and immediately lose by 24. It is the circle of life.
4. Cleveland Browns: Dante’s Tenth Circle
The Dawg Pound is no longer a football fandom; it is a clinical psychological experiment testing how much human beings can endure before completely severing all ties to reality.
Deshaun Watson is somehow still here, carrying the heaviest albatross of a contract in North American sports history while head coach Kevin Stefanski attempts to project calm in a burning building. Myles Garrett will spend another autumn looking like an Olympic god, dominating double-teams while staring over at his own sideline with the hollow, defeated eyes of a man who realized his prime years were spent inside a cursed portal.
- The Reality: Watching a modern Browns game is like watching someone try to start a lawnmower that’s been submerged in Lake Erie for three winters.
- The Outlook: A season defined by boos, quarterback controversies, trade rumor segments on local sports radio, and fans nostalgically re-watching 1980s Bernie Kosar VHS tapes just to feel something again.
AFC North Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Vibe Check |
| 1st | Baltimore Ravens | 12–5 | Ruthless machine rolling toward January tragedy |
| 2nd | Cincinnati Bengals | 10–7 | 38 PPG ceiling, praying for Burrow’s ribs |
| 3rd | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9–8 | Tomlin’s eternal purgatory; 16–13 rock fights |
| 4th | Cleveland Browns | 5–12 | Abandon all hope, ye who enter FirstEnergy |
Baltimore takes the division because their war machine is simply too loaded, but nobody leaves this division unscarred. Ice up, everybody.
ChatGPT
The AFC North is football’s least relaxing neighborhood. The weather is bad, the defensive linemen are enormous and every divisional game eventually becomes two exhausted teams exchanging field goals like passive-aggressive Christmas cards.
Pittsburgh won the division at 10-7 last year, then lost 30-6 in the wild-card round. Baltimore finished 8-9 and replaced John Harbaugh. Cincinnati went 6-11 despite employing Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cleveland finished 5-12, traded away Myles Garrett and has returned to Deshaun Watson at quarterback after a 22-month absence.
In other words, all four teams looked at 2025 and chose some form of controlled demolition. Baltimore changed the coach. Pittsburgh changed an institution. Cincinnati imported roughly 700 pounds of defensive tackles. Cleveland did whatever Cleveland is doing. Let us inspect the rubble.
The quick prediction
| Finish | Team | Projected record | Division record | Vibe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 12-5 | 5-1 | A prestige reboot with the original stars |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10-7 | 3-3 | An expensive offense finally receives adult supervision |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-8 | 3-3 | The legacy reunion tour refuses to leave the stage |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | 6-11 | 1-5 | A quarterback controversy waiting for its first commercial break |
1. Baltimore Ravens: new management, same terrifying employees
Prediction: 12-5, AFC North champions
Baltimore responded to an 8-9 season by ending the John Harbaugh era and hiring Jesse Minter. The remarkable part is not that the Ravens changed coaches. It is that they changed coaches while remaining the betting favorite to win the division. This is not a rebuild. It is the restaurant replacing its manager because the Michelin-starred kitchen somehow missed dinner service.
Lamar Jackson remains the division’s largest competitive advantage. Derrick Henry remains a refrigerator with a stiff-arm. Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman give new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle enough proven weapons to keep the offense dangerous. The philosophical challenge is simple: preserve what Jackson does best while improving the passing game’s consistency when opponents crowd the middle.
The offensive line is the concern. Jovaughn Gwyn is expected to make his first NFL start at center, while first-round rookie Vega Ioane steps in at right guard. Ronnie Stanley still protects Jackson’s blind side, but the interior will be tested immediately. Building an offense around Jackson and Henry behind two new starters is like transporting a grand piano in a compact car. The cargo is valuable. The suspension had better hold.
The defense may be spectacular. Baltimore added Trey Hendrickson to a front that badly needed a proven finisher. Nnamdi Madubuike is nearing a return after a neck injury erased most of last season. Roquan Smith controls the middle. Kyle Hamilton and Malaki Starks give Minter two versatile safeties capable of disguising almost anything. Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey and Chidobe Awuzie form a deep cornerback group.
Minter is a first-year NFL head coach, and Doyle is a first-time NFL play caller. That is real uncertainty. Still, Baltimore has elite talent at quarterback, running back, edge rusher, linebacker and safety. The Ravens did not need to reinvent football. They needed better health, more pressure and fewer Sundays that felt like deleted scenes from Final Destination.
This roster has the highest floor and ceiling in the division. Baltimore returns to the playoffs, wins 12 games and spends January being described as “the team nobody wants to face,” despite everybody having already said that in September.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow finally gets a defense-shaped object
Prediction: 10-7, wild card
The Bengals finished 6-11 because their 2025 defense approached tackling as an optional streaming add-on. Cincinnati ranked near the bottom of the league across most major categories, repeatedly forcing the offense to play every fourth quarter as if the building were on fire.
The front office responded with admirable subtlety by acquiring Dexter Lawrence II and signing Jonathan Allen. They join B.J. Hill, T.J. Slaton, Boye Mafe, Myles Murphy and Shemar Stewart. Cincinnati did not patch the defensive line. It ordered the entire deluxe renovation package and asked whether the showroom model could be delivered by Friday.
Lawrence changes the geometry of an offense. Allen adds pressure and veteran stability. Kyle Dugger and Bryan Cook improve the safety group, while DJ Turner II and Dax Hill lead the corners. This does not need to become an elite defense. If it becomes average, Burrow can do the rest.
Burrow still has the league’s most unfair receiving partnership in Chase and Higgins. Chase Brown rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, while Mike Gesicki and Erick All Jr. provide useful options inside. Joe Flacco returns as an unusually proven backup after Burrow’s injury-shortened 2025. Cincinnati has spent too many recent seasons learning why backup quarterback quality matters, like someone repeatedly touching the same hot pan for research.
The offensive line remains the reason to hesitate. Orlando Brown Jr. is trying to return to full form after lingering effects from his 2024 leg injury. Amarius Mims has immense talent at right tackle, but the depth behind both starters is uncertain. Ted Karras stabilizes the middle. Dalton Risner and Dylan Fairchild should help inside. None of that matters if Burrow is again required to conduct a post-snap escape room before finding Chase.
Cincinnati has a legitimate division-winning ceiling. I am stopping at ten victories because Baltimore is more complete and the Bengals still have to prove their new defense is a functioning unit rather than an expensive group photo. Burrow gets them back to January. The defense determines whether they stay.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: the reunion special
Prediction: 9-8
For the first time since 2007, someone other than Mike Tomlin is coaching the Steelers. Tomlin moved into broadcasting, and Pittsburgh hired Mike McCarthy. Aaron Rodgers returned for what he says will be his final season, reuniting with the coach who helped him win a Super Bowl in Green Bay.
It is the NFL equivalent of a legacy sequel in which the original stars meet at a diner, exchange meaningful looks and decide to do one last job. Sometimes that becomes Top Gun: Maverick. Sometimes it becomes the fifth Indiana Jones movie. Pittsburgh would prefer the airplane version.
The offense has better options than it did a year ago. DK Metcalf remains the featured deep threat after a disappointing 850-yard season. Michael Pittman Jr. adds a dependable possession receiver. Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington give Rodgers useful targets over the middle. Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle form a credible backfield.
The young offensive line is fascinating. Zach Frazier is already one of the league’s better centers. Troy Fautanu and Mason McCormick have upside, but the right side is inexperienced and Broderick Jones was traded. Rodgers understands McCarthy’s system better than almost anyone alive. Whether his 42-year-old body still wants to operate it for four months is a separate customer-service inquiry.
The defense remains loaded. T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig supply pressure. Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson bring range at linebacker. Joey Porter Jr., Jalen Ramsey, Jamel Dean, Asante Samuel Jr. and Jaquan Brisker create a secondary with both star power and enough personality to fill three seasons of a reality show. Cameron Heyward remains the front’s emotional center, even as Pittsburgh develops Keeanu Benton, Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black.
The Steelers won ten games last season because they defended, protected the ball and remained stubborn enough to outlive their opponents. That formula survives the coaching change. I see another winning record, because predicting a losing Steelers season is like predicting gravity will take a long weekend. The quarterback age and offensive-line uncertainty keep them behind Baltimore and Cincinnati.
4. Cleveland Browns: the quarterback carousel has reopened
Prediction: 6-11
Cleveland hired former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken after a 5-12 season. He immediately inherited the franchise’s longest-running drama: Who should play quarterback, and how quickly will everyone regret the answer?
Deshaun Watson won the starting job over Shedeur Sanders after missing 22 months and the entire 2025 season following two Achilles surgeries. Sanders started eight games as a rookie and remains close enough to the field that every Watson incompletion will produce a camera cut. Dillon Gabriel begins the year on injured reserve, while rookie Taylen Green gives Cleveland another developmental option. The Browns have collected quarterbacks the way a kitchen junk drawer collects batteries, yet nobody is certain which one still works.
There is young offensive talent. Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson can give Monken a physical running game. Jerry Jeudy remains the most established receiver. Isaiah Bond, KC Concepcion Jr. and rookie Denzel Boston bring speed and potential. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is a useful matchup piece. The offensive line, however, is no longer the automatic strength it once was, and the entire system depends on Watson producing something close to competent quarterback play.
Cleveland also traded Myles Garrett to the Rams. It received Jared Verse, a younger star edge defender, in the deal, which prevents the move from becoming pure football vandalism. Verse joins a defense featuring Denzel Ward, Tyson Campbell, Grant Delpit, Carson Schwesinger, Quincy Williams and Maliek Collins. New coordinator Mike Rutenberg has enough talent to keep the Browns competitive even without the league’s reigning sack-record holder.
The defense should be good. The running game should be respectable. The problem is that AFC North games eventually demand a quarterback make two difficult throws while someone shaped like a commercial refrigerator lands on him. Watson has not shown that ability consistently in Cleveland, and two Achilles surgeries do not simplify the assignment.
Six wins represents modest progress. Sanders probably starts before the season ends, whether because of performance, injury or the gravitational force of public demand. Cleveland will be annoying, physical and capable of ruining somebody’s playoff seeding. It will not be stable enough to contend for the division.
The games that decide it
Baltimore versus Cincinnati: Jackson and Burrow provide the glamour. Hendrickson facing his former team and Cincinnati’s rebuilt front provide the violence. These games should determine the crown.
Baltimore versus Pittsburgh: The Steelers beat Baltimore 26-24 in Week 18 last season to win the division and eliminate the Ravens. Minter does not need to explain that result to his locker room. It is probably already written on six walls.
Cincinnati versus Pittsburgh: Burrow’s receivers against Pittsburgh’s secondary may be the division’s best collection of one-on-one matchups. It will also generate enough talking to power a small Ohio suburb.
Everybody versus Cleveland: The Browns are the classic last-place team nobody enjoys playing. Their defense can steal a game, and their quarterback situation can steal the entire week’s news cycle.
Final verdict
Baltimore wins the AFC North because it combines the division’s best quarterback weapon with the deepest defense. Cincinnati returns to the playoffs because its defensive renovation only needs to reach mediocrity for Burrow to matter. Pittsburgh produces another winning season through defense, veteran competence and what appears to be an organizational refusal to acknowledge losing records. Cleveland improves slightly but remains trapped between a good defense and a quarterback plan with a visible emergency exit.
Final order: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns.
Confidence level: medium-high. Confidence that every Ravens-Steelers game will end 19-17 after consuming four years of everyone’s lifespan: absolute.
Roster and injury information checked September 8, 2026. Records are predictions, not permission to place the mortgage payment on a six-leg parlay.
Sources
- NFL.com: 2026 AFC North training camp preview
- Baltimore Ravens: AFC North strengths, weaknesses and projections
- Baltimore Ravens: Initial 53-man roster
- Cincinnati Bengals: Initial 53-man roster
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Initial 53-man roster
- Cleveland Browns: Initial 53-man roster
- Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson named starter
- Reuters: Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy begin their Pittsburgh reunion
- VegasInsider: 2026 AFC North odds
Claude
Montanimation Studios // The Sports Desk (Fourth Division, Still Standing)
AFC North 2026: Forty-Three Years of Head Coaching Vanished in One January
Mike Tomlin won the division and quit. John Harbaugh got fired and took half of Baltimore’s offensive line to New York with him. Cleveland hired the Ravens’ offensive coordinator. And Aaron Rodgers is playing his final season for the guy who coached him in 2008.
Filed September 5, 2026 · Half Art. Half Tech. All Shenanigans.
We have now done four divisions. The NFC West had a haunted electrical substation. The AFC West turned into a halfway house for demoted coordinators. The NFC North got parted out the Arizona Cardinals like a chop shop. Each time I thought we had found the ceiling.
The AFC North just cleared it by about forty feet.
In a span of eight days in January, this division lost three of its four head coaches, including the two longest-tenured coaches in the entire National Football League. Mike Tomlin, 19 seasons in Pittsburgh. John Harbaugh, 18 seasons in Baltimore. Kevin Stefanski, six in Cleveland. Forty-three combined years of institutional knowledge, gone in a little over a week.
Only Zac Taylor survived. His team went 6-11.
How It Happened, In Order
An eight-day window in which an entire division reset itself
January 5: Cleveland fires Kevin Stefanski after a 5-12 season and a 45-56 career record.
January 6: Baltimore fires John Harbaugh after 18 seasons and an 8-9 finish. Within weeks he is the head coach of the New York Giants.
January 12: Pittsburgh, having just won the AFC North at 10-7, loses at home in the wild card round. It is the franchise’s seventh consecutive playoff loss, a streak stretching back to 2016.
January 13: Mike Tomlin steps down. Not fired. Stepped down. The day after winning a division title.
Tomlin’s stated reasoning was, in classic Tomlin fashion, both gracious and quietly brutal. He said it was “a good time for me personally,” and then added that it was “a good time for the organization, to be quite honest for you.” He pointed directly at the seven straight playoff losses. He said Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt “were worthy of the excitement and the optimism associated with new leadership.”
A man walked into a room after winning a division and told the world that his players deserved somebody else. Then he went to work in television.
The Jerry Maguire Section
John Harbaugh did not go quietly. He got fired in Baltimore, got hired by the Giants, and then a remarkable number of Ravens followed him to New York, including tight end Isaiah Likely on a $40 million deal and several offensive linemen. Center Tyler Linderbaum left too, for Las Vegas and $81 million. Harbaugh essentially walked out of the building, pointed at the offensive line, and said “who’s coming with me.” Baltimore then spent the offseason rebuilding a unit that had partly relocated to work for the guy they fired.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Defending division champs, brand new coach, and a farewell tour nobody saw coming
The Steelers went 10-7 for the third straight season, which is the most Steelers number in existence. Ten and seven. Every year. Forever. They won the division on a 26-24 Sunday night win over Baltimore decided by a missed field goal from a rookie kicker, then lost in the wild card round, then lost their coach.
Enter Mike McCarthy, only the fourth head coach the Pittsburgh Steelers have employed since 1969. Noll, Cowher, Tomlin, McCarthy. That is the entire list. Most franchises churn through four coaches in a decade; the Steelers have used four in fifty-eight years.
And then McCarthy went and got his quarterback back.
Aaron Rodgers is playing his 22nd and final NFL season in Pittsburgh, for Mike McCarthy. These two men worked together in Green Bay from 2006 through 2018. They won a Super Bowl together. They also spent the back half of that run in a relationship that could charitably be described as complicated and was more accurately described at the time as a slow-motion divorce. Rodgers announced on May 20 that he will retire after the season. McCarthy has described the reunion as pure joy.
Two guys who could not stand each other in their thirties are running it back in their sixties and forties respectively, for one final lap, in the least sentimental city in professional sports. I would not miss a snap of it.
Elsewhere: Patrick Graham arrived from Las Vegas to run the defense, Brian Angelichio came over from Minnesota as OC, they signed corner Jamel Dean and running back Rico Dowdle, added safety Jaquan Brisker out of Chicago, and drafted Drew Allar in the third round as the actual succession plan.
Verdict: 19 percent for the division, and the analytical concern is that Graham’s defense plays conservatively against the deep ball, which blunts what Pittsburgh has always been. They host Atlanta in Week 1.
Baltimore Ravens
They fired a Harbaugh and hired a man who has worked for both Harbaughs
Baltimore went 8-9, missed the playoffs, and ended the second-longest active coaching tenure in football. Then they made a hire so perfectly ironic that it reads like a screenwriter got lazy.
Jesse Minter, 42 years old, five-year deal. He was the Chargers’ defensive coordinator, where his unit finished top five in points and passing yards allowed. Before that he was Jim Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator at Michigan for two seasons. And before that, from 2017 to 2020, he was a defensive assistant in Baltimore, working for John Harbaugh.
The Ravens fired John Harbaugh and replaced him with a coach who was developed by John Harbaugh and then finished his education under Jim Harbaugh. There is no escaping this family. They are in the walls.
The rest of the staff turned over too. Declan Doyle came in as offensive coordinator after Todd Monken left for Cleveland. Anthony Weaver took over the defense from Zach Orr. And the roster made one genuinely aggressive move: Trey Hendrickson signed with Baltimore for four years and $112 million, poached directly from Cincinnati. In this division, that is not a signing, that is an act of war.
They also extended Zay Flowers for four years and $140 million in August, and brought in John Simpson to help patch the line that walked out with Harbaugh.
Verdict: The oddsmakers’ clear favorite at 47 percent, with an 11-win projection. The theory is that Minter’s defense gets reinforced and the offense leans harder on Derrick Henry and play-action to protect an aging line. Open at Indianapolis in Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Brown spent money and the sky did not fall
The Bengals went 6-11 and have not made the playoffs in three years, which is a startling sentence about a team that reached a Super Bowl within recent memory. Zac Taylor is entering his eighth season and is now, improbably, the longest-tenured head coach in the AFC North by seven full seasons.
Then Cincinnati did something it has never done in the history of the franchise. On April 18, the Bengals traded the 10th overall pick to the New York Giants for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. That is reportedly the first time Cincinnati has ever traded a top-ten draft pick. For an organization historically run like a family business trying to stay under budget, that is roughly equivalent to your grandmother financing a speedboat.
They also added edge rusher Boye Mafe and safety Bryan Cook, signed Joe Flacco as the backup, and lost Trey Hendrickson to Baltimore, Cam Taylor-Britt, and Noah Fant.
Joe Burrow is healthy and he is saying so loudly: the Bengals are different this year, and he can “feel it in my bones.” Ja’Marr Chase has publicly co-signed it. Normally I would file this under Standard August Optimism, except the underlying case is real. A healthy Burrow, a genuinely upgraded defensive interior, and one of the easiest schedules in football with Cincinnati favored in all but two games.
Verdict: 34 percent, and the best value on the board. They host Tampa Bay in Week 1.
Cleveland Browns
Fired the coach, hired Baltimore’s coordinator, traded the best defender in football
Cleveland went 5-12. Kevin Stefanski was fired on January 5 with a 45-56 record across six seasons and two playoff appearances, which in Cleveland terms is actually a fairly decent run and that is its own kind of sad.
They replaced him with Todd Monken, poached from Baltimore, where he had been the offensive coordinator. So the Ravens lost their head coach and their offensive coordinator in the same month, and the coordinator went to a division rival. Baltimore’s January was less an offseason than a diaspora.
Then, on June 1, the Browns traded Myles Garrett to the Rams. Nine seasons, seven Pro Bowls, two Defensive Player of the Year awards, a single-season sack record. Gone, for edge rusher Jared Verse and first, second, and third round picks in 2027, 2028, and 2029. We covered this from the Los Angeles side two weeks ago and called it one of the wildest deals in modern history. From Cleveland’s side it is simply an admission: the roster was not close, the picks were worth more than the prime, and the timeline moved.
Joel Bitonio retired after a career spent entirely with the Browns. David Njoku went to the Chargers. Wyatt Teller went to Houston. In came Elgton Jenkins from Green Bay and Zion Johnson to rebuild the interior, plus linebacker Quincy Williams. They drafted tackle Spencer Fano ninth overall and receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, which is a coherent plan: protect whoever is playing quarterback, then find him somebody to throw to.
Verdict: Three percent for the division and twelve percent for the playoffs, which is the market saying “we see the defense, we see the schedule, we have done the math.” Six of Cleveland’s first nine games are on the road. They open at Jacksonville.
The Predictions
Three rookie head coaches and one guy who has been there since 2019
| Finish | Team | Record | The One-Line Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 12-5 | Hendrickson plus a real defensive mind plus Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11-6 | Wild card, healthy Burrow, and the softest schedule of anyone in this division |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-8 | Because it is always somewhere within one game of 10-7, it is a law of physics |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | Good defense, no offense, six of the first nine on the road, math is math |
Division winner: Baltimore Ravens. A first-time head coach is a real risk and I am taking it anyway, because Minter is not an unknown quantity to this building. He worked here. He knows the roster culture, he ran a top-five defense in Los Angeles, and he just got handed Trey Hendrickson. Lamar Jackson with a functional defense and a run game has been a 12-win formula for most of a decade. The offensive line is the actual worry, and it is a real one, but 8-9 was the floor of a talented team having a bad year, not the true level.
The Bengals are the sneaky play and I want to be clear that if you take them at 34 percent, I will not argue with you. That is a genuinely healthy Joe Burrow against a schedule that barely resists.
Now, continuity, because I have been keeping score. Two weeks ago I put the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game and had them lose it. I never said to whom. So: the Ravens win the North, and they are the team that beats Kansas City in that game. Baltimore goes to Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium and plays the Seattle Seahawks, who by my earlier reckoning will be there defending a title in the Rams’ building.
That would give us a Super Bowl between a team on its second straight championship run and a franchise that fired an eighteen-year head coach and won it all the very next season with a 42-year-old. If that happens, every owner in America fires their coach in January 2027 and we all have to live with what we have done.
The Bit
Follow the chain. Baltimore fires John Harbaugh, who goes to the Giants and takes offensive linemen with him. Baltimore hires Jim Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator to replace John Harbaugh. Baltimore’s offensive coordinator goes to Cleveland to be a head coach. Cincinnati trades its first-ever top-ten pick to the Giants, the team now coached by the man Baltimore fired. Cincinnati’s best pass rusher signs with Baltimore. Cleveland’s best player goes to the Rams. Pittsburgh’s coach quits and joins a broadcast booth, and Pittsburgh hires the man who used to coach the quarterback that Pittsburgh then signed. Nobody in this division stayed where they were. Nobody.
Three quick ones:
- Aaron Rodgers throws a touchdown pass at Lambeau Field in a Steelers uniform and the broadcast will handle it with all the restraint of a fireworks factory.
- Jesse Minter gets Coach of the Year votes and roughly four million people in Maryland have to sit very quietly with that.
- Myles Garrett records double-digit sacks for the Rams and a Cleveland sports radio host says something on air that gets clipped and viewed nine million times.
All four of these teams play at 1:00 Eastern on Sunday, September 13. Falcons at Pittsburgh and Buccaneers at Cincinnati on Fox, Baltimore at Indianapolis and Cleveland at Jacksonville on CBS. Three of those four sidelines will have a head coach who has never coached a regular season game for that franchise. In the AFC North. Where they have historically kept coaches until the coaches simply got tired.
Nothing about this is normal. All of it is football. Let’s go.
Sources
- NFL.com: Mike Tomlin stepping down as Steelers head coach after 19 seasons
- CBS Pittsburgh: Tomlin discusses the factors that led to his resignation
- ESPN: Mike Tomlin steps down, ending a 19-year run
- Yahoo Sports: Steelers hire Mike McCarthy as Tomlin’s successor
- Yahoo Sports: Aaron Rodgers reunites with Mike McCarthy, signs with Steelers for a 22nd season
- 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers season
- Steelers Depot: Final 2025 AFC North standings
- Fox News: Ravens fire head coach John Harbaugh after 18 seasons
- NFL.com: Ravens hire Chargers DC Jesse Minter as head coach
- CBS Sports: What we learned as the Ravens introduced Jesse Minter
- 2026 Baltimore Ravens season
- NFL.com: Joe Burrow says the Bengals are different in 2026
- 2026 Cincinnati Bengals season
- 2026 Cleveland Browns season
- ESPN: Making sense of the Myles Garrett trade
- Covers: AFC North predictions, odds and best picks for 2026
- NFL.com: Week 1 2026 schedule
// Montanimation Studios // Half Art. Half Tech. All Shenanigans. //