Welcome to the AFC South Preview, as created by AI Agents. I asked Google Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude to take a look deep into their data centers to predict how the Cleveland Browns of NFL divisions will do this year. This division features 3 teams who have never won a Super Bowl, the worst of any division.
If the NFC South is like a Waffle House, than the AFC South is like a Buc-ee’s. And honestly, there’s nothing wrong with that because those brisket sandwiches are awesome.
Recently we took a long look at the new AFC South division rivals jerseys and let’s just say, they were awesome.
Can anyone knock C.J. Stroud off the divisional throne? From Trevor Lawrence hunting for consistency to the Colts backing up the Brink’s truck for Sauce Gardner, here is our deep-dive breakdown into football’s most overlooked grudge match. Four franchises, one runaway favorite, and plenty of chaos in the middle. This is how the AFC South shakes out this fall. Maybe.
Follow along with the rest of the previews : Check out the NFC West Preview, AFC West Preview, NFC North Preview, AFC North Preview, and NFC South Preview.
Google Gemini
AFC South 2026 Preview: Stroud Boys, Duval Swag, and The Circle of Mediocrity
Welcome to the AFC South, the NFL’s Bermuda Triangle of broadcast schedules. This is the sacred sanctuary of the 1:00 PM regional telecast that gets cut off in the fourth quarter to switch to an infomercial about copper pans.
Yet, underneath the low national ratings lies pure, unfiltered theater: C.J. Stroud running a tech-startup offense in Houston, Trevor Lawrence tossing majestic passes while Jacksonville builds an entire roster around two-way college legends, Indianapolis turning its defense into Fort Knox while rotating quarterbacks like rental sedans, and Tennessee wandering the wilderness in search of an offensive identity.
1. Houston Texans: The Tech IPO That Actually Scaled
Houston went from “dumpster fire with interim coaching rotations” to “Wall Street darling” so fast it gave the entire AFC whiplash.
C.J. Stroud commands this offense like a venture capitalist pitching a series-A round: cool, calm, and mathematically optimal. Nico Collins is catching passes in third-story windows, David Montgomery arrived to bring blunt-force ground trauma, and DeMeco Ryans’ defense is terrifying. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter collapse pockets off the edge like they’re competing in a lumberjack championship, while Derek Stingley Jr. turns opposing wideouts into background extras.
- The Reality: Success brings a target. Stroud doesn’t get to surprise anyone anymore; every defensive coordinator is spending their Tuesday nights watching his tape. The offensive line has undergone some patchwork renovation, and if they hold up, this team is built for January.
- The Outlook: The clear alpha dogs of the division. Barring an act of God, the Texans should cruise to double-digit wins and another AFC South banner.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sunshine, Waffle House, and Trevor’s Trajectory
Jacksonville plays football the way people ride roller coasters at county fairs: exhilarating peaks, dizzying drops, and a mild lingering feeling of nausea.
Trevor Lawrence still looks like a 90s shampoo commercial, slinging deep balls to Brian Thomas Jr. with absurd velocity. With Travis Hunter in town as the ultimate do-it-all Swiss Army knife and Josh Hines-Allen hunting down signal-callers off the edge, the Jaguars have elite ceiling moments that make them look like a top-four AFC heavyweight.
- The Reality: Consistency remains the white whale in Duval. They’ll blow out a Super Bowl contender by 20 on a Sunday afternoon, then travel to London and lose to a team starting their backup punter at quarterback.
- The Outlook: A 10–7 or 9–8 wildcard brawler. If Lawrence cuts down on the backbreaking red-zone turnovers, they can push Houston to the final Sunday.
3. Indianapolis Colts: Defense Wins Championships (Offense Pending)
The Colts looked at modern offensive shootouts and decided they’d rather assemble the 1985 Bears.
Chris Ballard spent the offseason splashing cash and assets across the defense, trading for Sauce Gardner and signing Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum to form an absolute no-fly zone in the secondary. Up front, DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu are built to wreck lives. The catch? The quarterback room is a live-action stress test. Between Anthony Richardson’s athletic rocket-launching chaos and Daniel Jones sitting in the wings as a $19 million insurance policy, Shane Steichen is coaching on hard mode.
- The Reality: Jonathan Taylor will carry the ball until the treads fall off the tires, but if Indy can’t complete routine passes in the two-minute drill, all that defensive lockdown talent will be wasted on 17–13 heartbreakers.
- The Outlook: A frustrating, physical squad that will drag high-flying offenses into low-scoring street fights. Classic 8–9 bubble team territory.
4. Tennessee Titans: The Honky-Tonk Teardown
In Nashville, the music is loud, the hot chicken is spicy, and the football offense is an existential mystery.
With Derrick Henry long gone and the roster hitting a hard reset, the Titans are currently in that awkward phase where they are trying to find out what they actually want to be when they grow up. The defense has some foundational pieces up front, but opposing coordinators don’t lose sleep scheming against this roster.
- The Reality: When you enter a season with fans openly monitoring the top of next spring’s mock drafts by Week 4, expectations are on the floor.
- The Outlook: 4 or 5 wins, a lot of halftime adjustments that don’t adjust anything, and fans eagerly spending Sunday afternoons scouting college quarterbacks.
AFC South Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Vibe Check |
| 1st | Houston Texans | 12–5 | Stroud’s tech-stock juggernaut cruises |
| 2nd | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10–7 | Lawrence + Hunter highlight reels, wildcard bound |
| 3rd | Indianapolis Colts | 8–9 | Sauce & the defense ball out; passing game stalls |
| 4th | Tennessee Titans | 4–13 | Country music melancholy and draft board scouting |
Houston holds onto the crown with authority, but Jacksonville has enough firepower to make the division race entertaining before the playoffs arrive.
ChatGPT
The AFC South enters 2026 with two legitimate playoff teams, one dangerous mystery and one rebuild that finally remembered to purchase building materials.
Jacksonville won the division at 13-4 last season after closing with eight consecutive victories. Houston finished 12-5, destroyed Pittsburgh 30-6 in the wild-card round and reached the divisional playoffs. Indianapolis started 8-2, lost Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles and eventually pulled 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement like a sitcom reintroducing a beloved character after the writers ran out of ideas. Tennessee went 3-14 for a second consecutive year.
This division is stronger than its old reputation. Houston and Jacksonville can win in January. Indianapolis has enough talent to bother everyone. Tennessee has Cam Ward, a new coaching staff and the reckless optimism of a franchise that has finally deleted several old group chats.
The quick prediction
| Finish | Team | Projected record | Division record | Vibe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | 12-5 | 5-1 | A championship defense waiting for the offense to answer its texts |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-7 | 4-2 | The successful reboot faces a more expensive second season |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 2-4 | An excellent roster balanced on one surgically repaired ankle |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | 6-11 | 1-5 | The rebuild finally contains recognizable architectural plans |
1. Houston Texans: the defense has entered the building
Prediction: 12-5, AFC South champions
Houston did not win the division last season, but it produced the deeper playoff run and enters 2026 as the betting favorite. The reason is standing on the defensive sideline looking as if someone just insulted its family.
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter give the Texans one of football’s most destructive edge combinations. Jadeveon Clowney adds veteran depth to a rotation that did not urgently need another large problem for opposing tackles. Derek Stingley Jr. is an elite corner. Kamari Lassiter gives Houston another physical coverage option. DeMeco Ryans can attack quarterbacks without gambling the secondary’s dignity on every snap.
This defense is not merely good. It changes the terms of a game. Houston can survive an uneven offensive afternoon because the opponent may spend three quarters trying to escape third-and-long. It is football’s version of the Xenomorph. You can have a plan, carry expensive equipment and speak confidently during the briefing. Once the doors close, Anderson is probably in the ceiling.
C.J. Stroud remains the most important variable. His rookie season created instant superstar expectations. The next two years were less clean, partly because Houston’s offensive line repeatedly treated pass protection like a trust exercise. Stroud does not need to become a different quarterback. He needs enough stable pockets to rediscover the anticipation and aggression that made his first season special.
The line has been remodeled again. Aireontae Ersery emerged as a promising young tackle. Houston added veterans Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller and Evan Brown after trading Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs. The talent level looks improved. The chemistry remains theoretical until five people begin responding to the same stunt without turning it into interactive theater.
The skill group has a clear star and several questions. Nico Collins is a true No. 1 receiver. Tank Dell begins the season on injured reserve with a designation to return. Jayden Higgins is also sidelined. That leaves Kayshon Boutte, Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel competing for larger roles. Dalton Schultz and Foster Moreau give Stroud reliable tight ends, but the offense needs one secondary receiver to become more than a hopeful training-camp paragraph.
David Montgomery brings the physical running style Houston lacked. Woody Marks supplies more speed and receiving ability. Montgomery may not produce highlight runs every Sunday. He will produce bruises, four-yard gains and the sort of unpleasant late-game drives that allow the defense to rest before resuming its hunt.
The receiving depth and rebuilt line keep Houston from feeling invincible. Everything else says contender. The Texans win 12 games, reclaim the division and enter January with a defense nobody wants to see unless the opposing offensive coordinator has recently updated his life insurance.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: now comes the difficult sequel
Prediction: 10-7, wild-card contender
Jacksonville’s first year under Liam Coen was an enormous success. The Jaguars improved from four wins to 13, finished the regular season on an eight-game streak and won the AFC South. Their season ended with a 27-24 wild-card loss to Buffalo after four fourth-quarter lead changes and one final Trevor Lawrence interception.
The Jaguars now face the problem every surprise hit encounters: everybody watched the first season. Defensive coordinators have studied Coen’s answers. Opponents will treat Jacksonville like the reigning division champion rather than a confused tourist. The sequel has a larger budget, harsher reviews and fewer opportunities to sneak up on anyone.
Lawrence finally looked comfortable in Coen’s offense. He processed faster, used his legs at the correct moments and played his best football during the eight-game closing streak. The challenge is turning that stretch into a full season. Lawrence no longer needs to prove that he can be excellent. He needs to prove excellence is the standard rather than a limited holiday release.
Brian Thomas Jr. is the featured receiver. Jakobi Meyers supplies veteran reliability. Parker Washington adds quickness and has already delivered in important games. Travis Hunter is expected to focus primarily on cornerback after his rookie season ended with an LCL injury, though Coen still plans selective offensive packages. Jacksonville has wisely decided that employing a rare two-way talent does not require playing him until his knees file a workplace complaint.
The backfield changed when Travis Etienne left. Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and LeQuint Allen Jr. will divide the work. Tuten offers the highest upside, but the group must replace proven production. Brenton Strange remains a useful tight end, while Anton Harrison and center Robert Hainsey anchor a line that was functional during last year’s surge.
Jacksonville’s defense starts with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. They remain one of the league’s best edge pairings. Hunter’s move toward corner should strengthen a pass defense that needed help. Jourdan Lewis, Jarrian Jones and the safety group give coordinator Anthony Campanile options to disguise coverage behind the rush.
I expect regression because 13 wins are difficult to repeat and Jacksonville benefited from several close outcomes during its streak. Regression does not mean collapse. A 10-7 finish would give the Jaguars their first consecutive playoff-caliber seasons this century. Coen and Lawrence have built something real. It just may be slightly less cinematic when the surprise is gone.
3. Indianapolis Colts: please keep the emergency quarterback behind glass
Prediction: 8-9
The Colts were 8-2 last season and owned one of football’s best offenses. Then the campaign turned into a medical procedural. Daniel Jones fractured his fibula and later tore his Achilles. Riley Leonard hurt his knee. Anthony Richardson Sr. had already suffered a season-ending orbital injury during a pregame accident. Indianapolis eventually called Philip Rivers, who was 44 and had not played in nearly five years.
It was inspiring. It was absurd. It was also a clear reminder that no roster can remain normal after exhausting enough quarterbacks.
Jones returns as the starter. Before the injury, he was playing the best football of his career. Shane Steichen gave him defined reads, movement throws and an elite running game. Jones rewarded that structure with efficient decisions and selective aggression. The question is not whether the system fits. The question is how quickly a quarterback coming off an Achilles tear can trust the leg when the pocket folds.
Jonathan Taylor remains the engine. Quenton Nelson remains the offensive line’s bouncer. Bernhard Raimann, Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves help form a strong group around them, though tackle depth has already required attention. When Taylor is healthy, the Colts can control games without asking Jones to throw 42 times while avoiding angry people.
The receiver room looks different after Michael Pittman Jr. was traded. Keenan Allen provides veteran route craft. Josh Downs wins quickly from the slot. Alec Pierce stretches the field. Tight end Tyler Warren gives Steichen a movable matchup problem. This is a balanced group, but it lacks a receiver who automatically commands double coverage.
The defense may be the reason Indianapolis stays alive. Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward give Lou Anarumo two high-level outside corners. Cam Bynum organizes the secondary. DeForest Buckner remains the front’s leader, while Laiatu Latu supplies edge pressure. Anarumo can disguise coverage, create uncomfortable protections and generally make a quarterback question decisions he made during childhood.
Anthony Richardson remains on the roster as the backup, with Leonard as a developmental option. That is better depth than last December’s emergency reunion tour. Still, Indianapolis has tied its ceiling to Jones returning quickly and staying upright behind a schedule that includes the AFC North.
The Colts are good enough to win ten games if Jones resembles his 2025 form. They are fragile enough to win six if the quarterback position becomes a weekly press conference. I will split the difference at 8-9 and begin bubble-wrapping Philip Rivers as a precaution.
4. Tennessee Titans: this rebuild finally has furniture
Prediction: 6-11
Tennessee has gone 3-14 in consecutive seasons. That is not a slump. That is a franchise establishing residency.
The encouraging news is that the Titans finally built an offseason around Cam Ward rather than merely handing him the ball and wishing him luck. Robert Saleh takes over as head coach. Brian Daboll runs the offense. Gus Bradley coordinates the defense. All three have extensive NFL experience, which should reduce the number of Sundays when Tennessee appears to be discovering the rules during the coin toss.
Ward showed real promise late in his rookie season. He has a powerful arm, natural creativity and the confidence to attempt throws that cause coaches to experience several emotions at once. Daboll’s job is to preserve the improvisation while giving Ward more easy completions. Development does not mean removing the chaos. It means teaching the chaos where to park.
The receiving corps is dramatically better. Tennessee signed Wan’Dale Robinson and drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall. Robinson provides quick separation underneath. Tate brings size and downfield ability. Calvin Ridley remains a dangerous veteran, while Elic Ayomanor earned a larger role through a strong camp. Ward now has multiple answers instead of one receiver and a collection of motivational quotes.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears return in the backfield, with rookie Nick Singleton adding power and speed. Gunnar Helm and Daniel Bellinger give the offense useful tight ends. The line still has to prove it can protect Ward consistently, but James Hudson adds tackle depth around a young group that should benefit from a more coherent system.
The defense begins with Jeffery Simmons, the roster’s most reliable star. John Franklin-Myers joins him inside, giving Saleh a sturdy foundation. Rookie edge rusher Keldric Faulk offers length and upside. The secondary has enough competent veterans to function, but the defense still lacks Houston’s wave of game-changing talent or Jacksonville’s proven edge duo.
Tennessee will be improved and occasionally dangerous. Ward will produce several breathtaking plays, including a few that benefit the other team. The Titans are not ready to chase Houston and Jacksonville, but six wins would double last year’s total and provide evidence that this rebuild is more than a beautifully rendered brochure.
The games that decide it
Houston versus Jacksonville: The Texans own the division’s best defense. The Jaguars return its defending champions. Stroud and Lawrence will receive the headlines, but the edge rushers may determine both games.
Jacksonville versus Indianapolis: The Jaguars swept toward a 13-win season while the Colts collapsed under injuries. Indianapolis has enough secondary talent to challenge Lawrence’s weapons, assuming its own quarterback situation remains attached with more than athletic tape.
Houston versus Indianapolis: Taylor is the best tool for slowing Houston’s pass rush because he can keep the Colts out of obvious passing situations. If Indianapolis falls behind early, Anderson and Hunter will begin treating the pocket like a demolition permit.
Everybody versus Tennessee: The Titans are the last-place team most likely to improve quickly. Ward and Tate can steal a game. Simmons can ruin one. Nobody gets to circle Tennessee in ink anymore, though pencil remains acceptable.
Final verdict
Houston wins the AFC South because its defense is the division’s strongest unit and the offense only needs to become reliable. Jacksonville remains dangerous because Coen unlocked Lawrence and the pass rush travels. Indianapolis has playoff talent but too much of its forecast depends on Jones’ repaired Achilles. Tennessee finally moves forward behind Ward, Daboll and a far better receiving corps.
Final order: Texans, Jaguars, Colts, Titans.
Confidence level: medium-high on Houston finishing first or second. Confidence that Indianapolis has already placed Rivers’ phone number under “break glass in December”: absolute.
Roster and injury information checked September 9, 2026. Records are predictions, not instructions to transform the grocery budget into a four-team parlay.
Sources
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 2025 division title and playoff berth
- Reuters: Buffalo defeats Jacksonville in the wild-card round
- Houston Texans: Official 2026 roster
- Houston Texans: Official depth chart
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Initial 2026 roster breakdown
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Official 2026 depth chart
- Indianapolis Colts: Initial 2026 roster
- Indianapolis Colts: 2026 quarterback preview
- Reuters: Indianapolis calls Philip Rivers out of retirement
- Tennessee Titans: Official 2026 roster
- VegasInsider: 2026 AFC South odds
Claude
Montanimation Studios // The Sports Desk (Six Down, Two To Go)
AFC South 2026: Twenty-Five Wins at the Top, Eleven at the Bottom, and the Team That Ended the Tomlin Era
Last week the NFC South gave us three teams tied at 8-9. This week the AFC South gives us a 13-4 division champion, a 12-5 wild card that went into Pittsburgh and won by 24, and a 3-14 disaster that fired its coach in October. Same league. Same number of teams. Completely different genre.
Filed September 9, 2026 · Half Art. Half Tech. All Shenanigans.
Seven days ago I described the NFC South as a queue. Four teams within two games of each other, three of them tied with losing records, a professional analyst calling the whole thing a clogged toilet.
Here is the 2025 AFC South:
Jacksonville 13-4. Houston 12-5. Indianapolis 8-9. Tennessee 3-14.
A ten-game gap from first to last. Twenty-five wins between the top two teams and eleven between the bottom two. This is the most stratified division in football, and the strangest part is that almost nobody outside of Florida and Texas seems to have noticed it happened.
The Jacksonville Jaguars won thirteen games. Say it out loud. Thirteen. In Liam Coen’s first season as a head coach. And they still had to hold off a Houston team that went 12-5, walked into Acrisure Stadium in January, and beat the Steelers 30-6.
That last part matters more than the box score suggests, and we will get to it, because Houston did not just win a playoff game. Houston ended an era.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Defending division champions, and nobody has fully processed it
The Jaguars went 13-4. Liam Coen, in year one, took a franchise that has spent most of its existence as a punchline and produced the best record in the AFC South since the Texans’ peak. James Gladstone is in year two as GM. Trevor Lawrence, after years of being a referendum, was finally coached.
Now they try to do something Jacksonville has done exactly once: win the division in consecutive years. The last time was 1998 and 1999. There are people with mortgages who were not alive for it.
The offseason was busier than you would expect from a 13-win team, and pointed in a direction that suggests real confidence. They traded away Christian Kirk, Tank Bigsby, Tyson Campbell, and Cam Robinson. They traded their first-round pick, 24th overall, to Cleveland. They brought in Jakobi Meyers from Las Vegas and corner Greg Newsome II from Cleveland.
Read the Kirk trade again, though: they sent him to Houston. For a seventh-round pick. You do not hand a starting receiver to the team that finished one game behind you unless you are extremely sure about your own room, or extremely done with the player. Possibly both.
And then there is Travis Hunter, still listed on the roster as cornerback and wide receiver, which remains the most interesting ongoing experiment in professional football. Jacksonville traded up to take him second overall in 2025 and has spent every month since fielding the same question, which is whether a human being can actually do this at this level for seventeen games. We are about to find out again.
Verdict: 29 percent for the division, and the schedule is genuinely hostile. Jacksonville was 7-1 at home last year and plays only three home games in the first eleven weeks. That is a brutal way to defend a title. They host Cleveland in Week 1.
Houston Texans
Twelve wins, a road playoff rout, and four interceptions in one half
Houston went 12-5, finished second, and took the fifth seed. Then they went to Pittsburgh and won 30-6, the first road playoff victory in franchise history.
Here is what that game actually did. It was the Steelers’ seventh consecutive playoff loss. The next day, Mike Tomlin stepped down after nineteen seasons. If you read our AFC North preview, that resignation was the first domino in a January that took out three of that division’s four head coaches. Houston did not just advance. Houston triggered a regime change in another division and then went home.
Because the following week, C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half against New England and the Texans lost 28-16. The Patriots went on to the Super Bowl, where Seattle beat them 29-13. So Houston’s season ended with the best half of football the franchise has ever played and then the worst.
The Stroud Question
C.J. Stroud has now been in the league long enough that the conversation has turned. He is no longer a phenom, he is a quarterback with a large contract conversation approaching and a real statistical wobble: his indoor and outdoor splits are a genuine concern, and Houston plays cold-weather road games in the final six weeks. He reported to camp visibly leaner and talking about his scrambling. That is either a man who fixed the problem or a man who identified the wrong problem. There is no version of 2026 where we do not find out.
DeMeco Ryans is in year four and the front office spent the offseason doing the least glamorous and most necessary thing: fixing the offensive line and the run game. They drafted guard Keylan Rutledge in the first round and tackle help throughout, added David Montgomery from Detroit and guard Wyatt Teller from Cleveland, and picked up Christian Kirk from Jacksonville for a seventh. That is a team that watched its quarterback get hit too often and responded like adults.
Verdict: The oddsmakers’ favorite at 45 percent, with a warning attached: twelve of seventeen games project as spreads of a field goal or less. This will be another season of one-score games, and one-score games are a coin flip factory. They host Buffalo in Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts
8-9 in back-to-back seasons, and a quarterback room that needs a flowchart
The Colts went 8-9. They also went 8-9 the year before. Shane Steichen is entering year four, Chris Ballard is entering year ten, and both were retained, which is either admirable patience or organizational inertia depending on how charitable you are feeling. Steichen has landed on essentially every hot-seat list published this summer, and the framing is consistently “playoffs or bust.”
The quarterback situation is where this gets genuinely sad.
Daniel Jones is the starter. He signed a one-year deal, played well early in 2025, and then struggled against real defenses, which is the most Daniel Jones sentence ever constructed. He is entering Week 1 coming off an injury.
Anthony Richardson is the backup. The fourth overall pick in 2023. When Indianapolis committed to Jones, they gave Richardson permission to seek a trade. Nobody traded for him. He came back, competed with Riley Leonard for the backup job, and won it. His own summary: “I’m here. I’m not really thinking about that. Since Day 1 of camp, I’ve been trying to prepare myself to be the backup for Daniel.”
A top-five pick asked to leave, was told he could, found no takers, returned, and fought his way up to second string. Steichen praised his growth “going through adversity, going through uncontrollable things.” That is a kind thing for a coach to say and also a eulogy.
Indianapolis traded its first-round pick to the Jets and its second to Pittsburgh, so the draft was a mid-round affair: linebacker CJ Allen, safety A.J. Haulcy, guard Jalen Farmer. Jonathan Taylor is still Jonathan Taylor, and he is still the actual offense.
Verdict: 20 percent, and the market leans under on both wins and totals. They host Baltimore in Week 1, which is a rough way to start a playoffs-or-bust season.
Tennessee Titans
3-14, a mid-October firing, and a genuinely interesting rebuild
Tennessee went 3-14. Brian Callahan was fired on October 13 after a 1-5 start, which was the second consecutive year his team started 1-5. Mike McCoy went 2-9 as interim. The whole thing was over by Halloween.
And then the Titans did the two smartest things available to them.
First, on January 22, they hired Robert Saleh, who spent three-plus seasons with the Jets and whose defenses there were legitimately excellent even while the rest of that organization was on fire. Second, five days later, they hired Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator.
That second hire deserves a moment. Daboll was the head coach of the New York Giants. He is now a coordinator in Tennessee. And the Giants job he vacated? It went to John Harbaugh, freshly fired by Baltimore after eighteen seasons, who then took a chunk of the Ravens’ offensive line to New York with him. If you have been reading these previews, that chain now connects the AFC North, the NFC East, and the AFC South. Everybody in this sport is just circulating.
The point of both hires is Cam Ward, entering year two, and Saleh has been unusually blunt that his own job is staked to the kid’s development. They drafted receiver Carnell Tate fourth overall to give him something to throw to and edge Keldric Faulk at 31.
They also, on March 12, unveiled their first uniform redesign since 2018, dropping the flame and pulling in the original Houston Oilers colors. A team in Tennessee reaching back into its Houston past for an identity, in a division that also contains Houston. I do not know what to do with that but I refuse to let it go unmentioned.
Verdict: Nine percent, dead last, and the market has them under six wins. But this is the only rebuild in the division with a coherent plan, and Saleh plus Daboll plus a second-year quarterback is a real foundation. They host the Jets in Week 1, which the schedule-makers clearly enjoyed.
The Predictions
Two very good teams and two teams with homework
| Finish | Team | Record | The One-Line Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | 11-6 | Fixed the line, kept the defense, and Stroud has something to prove |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-7 | Wild card, and the road-heavy first eleven weeks is what costs them the repeat |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-10 | Third straight season within a game of .500, and this time somebody gets fired |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | 6-11 | Doubles their win total, loses six close ones, and everyone leaves encouraged |
Division winner: Houston Texans. I want to be honest that this is not a confident pick, because Jacksonville won three more games than Houston last year and returns the coach who did it. But 13-4 teams regress, the Jaguars gave away four starters and their first-round pick, and their early schedule is a gauntlet of road games. Meanwhile Houston spent an entire offseason addressing the exact thing that has capped them for three years, which is protecting the quarterback. The team that fixes its actual problem usually beats the team hoping last year repeats.
The Titans are my favorite non-contender in football this season and I would not be shocked by eight wins. Saleh inherited a roster with a top-five pick, a second-year quarterback, and a genuinely creative offensive coordinator. That is not a rebuild, that is a launchpad with a bad 2025 attached.
Continuity, because I have been keeping score all month. I already put Baltimore in the Super Bowl over Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. So Houston wins the division, wins a wild card game, and loses in the divisional round. Again. That is now three straight years of the same shape for this franchise: good enough to win in January, not good enough to win twice. At some point that stops being a step and starts being a plateau.
The Bit
The Texans beat the Steelers 30-6 and Mike Tomlin quit the next day. Pittsburgh then hired Mike McCarthy, who signed Aaron Rodgers. Houston lost the following week to New England, who lost the Super Bowl to Seattle, whose offensive coordinator became the Raiders head coach, who traded Jakobi Meyers to Jacksonville. Jacksonville traded Christian Kirk to Houston. Brian Daboll got fired by the Giants and became the Titans’ offensive coordinator, and the Giants replaced him with John Harbaugh. Six previews in, I am no longer convinced these are eight separate divisions. It is one enormous organism and we are watching it digest itself.
Three quick ones:
- Travis Hunter plays more than 900 total snaps and the discourse about whether a person should be allowed to do this reaches a volume normally reserved for elections.
- Anthony Richardson starts at least three games and plays well enough in one of them that a different franchise makes a phone call in March.
- Christian Kirk catches a touchdown against Jacksonville and somebody in a Jaguars front office chair thinks very hard about a seventh-round pick.
The season kicks off tonight in Seattle. This division waits until Sunday: Browns at Jacksonville and Ravens at Indianapolis at 1:00 on CBS, Bills at Houston and Jets at Tennessee at noon. Two of those four games involve a team that won at least twelve games last season. Two of them involve a team that is trying to remember how.
Nothing about this is normal. All of it is football. Let’s go.
Sources
- 2025 Houston Texans season, including final AFC South standings and playoff results
- 2026 Houston Texans season
- ESPN: C.J. Stroud talks new look and improved scrambling ability
- 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars season
- ESPN: What to expect from Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence in 2026
- Yahoo Sports: Jaguars take a strong step under Coen, but what is the plan for Travis Hunter?
- 2026 Indianapolis Colts season
- CBS Sports: Colts name Anthony Richardson backup QB, what’s next
- Sports Illustrated: Shane Steichen’s seat sizzles as the Colts enter the offseason
- 2026 Tennessee Titans season
- NBC News: Titans 2026 season preview, Cam Ward primed for a big step
- ESPN: Why the Titans coach put his job on the line for Cam Ward
- Covers: AFC South predictions, odds and best picks for 2026
- NFL.com: Week 1 2026 schedule
// Montanimation Studios // Half Art. Half Tech. All Shenanigans. //